L'heure des prédateurs - Giuliano Da Empoli

 

• allogène : d'une origine différente de la population autochtone
• interlope : dont l'activité n'est pas légale
• luddite : ouvrier s'opposant aux techniques modernes
• componction : sentiment profond de regret

• La première loi du comportement stratégique est l'action. En situation d'incertitude, lorsque la légitimité du pouvoir est précaire et peut être remise en cause à tout moment, celui qui n'agit pas peut être sûr que les changements auront lieu à son désavantage.
• Cambridge Analytica.
• L'idée même d'une limite à la logique de la force, de la finance et des cryptomonnaies, à l'emballement de l'IA et des technologies convergentes, ou au basculement de l'ordre international vers la jungle, est sortie du domaine du concevable.
• Il n'y a pratiquement aucune relation entre la puissance intellectuelle et l'intelligence politique.
• La prise de risque est la seule vraie monnaie du jeu.
• "On n'attend pas le bon moment pour se lancer. On se lance en espérant que ce sera le bon moment."
• Ils parlent un langage inintelligible, dans le seul but de tromper les pauvres gens et, en fin de compte, ils ne s'occupent que de leurs propres affaires.
• Aux Etats-Unis, les avocats sont la catégorie professionnelle la plus détestée, juste derrière les politiciens.
• Augmenter la température pour multiplier l'engagement.
• Alimenter le réchauffement du climat social.
• "Moi je ne vois que ce que je crois" : lapsus Eric Zemmour.
• "Qui ne sait pas dissimuler ne sait pas régner"
• Comme les borgiens, l'IA se nourrit du chaos et en extrait la surprise.
• Ils étaient habitués à l'idée qu'acquérir des informations est le meilleur moyen de réduire l'incertitude sur l'avenir.
• Aujourd'hui, nous possédons de plus en plus d'informations et nous sommes de moins en moins capables de prédire l'avenir.
• Les borgiens sont à l'aise, parce qu'ils se nourrissent du chaos.
• Mais surtout le plaisir du contact humain, de sa chaleur et des surprises qu'il recèle. Tout le contraire des Asperger de la tech et de leur désir maniaque de transformer l'homme en machine.
• Waze souffre d'Asperger : ses efforts sont concentrés sur un seul objectif.
• Le Château s'approprie un bien public et le transforme en bénéfice privé.
• "Il se peut que la lumière qui éclaire notre univers s'éteigne et que nous soyons plongés dans une obscurité pareille à celle de cette nuit. Peut-être même quelque cataclysme, pire que la guerre, est-il déjà déclenché et, dans l'âme humaine, partout, les choses évoluent-elles de telle façon que tout ce qui doit être réglé le sera par le feu et l'épée. Il se peut que cette réponse soit réellement arrivée." Sándor Márai, Les Braises.
• "Les philosophes ne m'intéressent pas, je cherche des sages" 
• Curzio Malaparte Technique du coup d'État

Just Keep Buying - Nick Maggiulli

 

1. Where should you start? Why saving is for the poor and investing is for the rich

• neuroticism: névrotisme

I. SAVING

• If you are retired and can no longer work, you should spend more time on your investments.

2. How much should you save? It's probably less than you think.

• overarching: prédominant

• Phenoptypic plasticity, or the ability for an organism to change its physiology in response to its environment. When we have the ability to save more, we should save more, and when we don't, we should save less.
• The biggest determinant of an individual's saving rate is the level of their income.
• Earners in the bottom 20% saved 1% of their income annually while earners in the top 20% saved 24% of their income annually.
• Save what you can.
• The end result of this behavior is lots of money left to heirs.
• This data suggest that the fear of running out of money in retirement is a bigger threat to retirees than actually running out of money.
• Given the empirical research, the risk of running out of money for many current and future retirees remains low. This is why you probably need to save less than you think.

3. How to save more. The biggest lie in personal finance

• foraging: cueillette
• wiggle room: marge de manoeuvre
• floss: fil dentaire
• tout: racoler
• The human body will adjust its total energy expenditure over time based on physical activity.
• Despite the many documented health benefits of exercise, its effect on weight loss seems to be limited by human evolution.
• Increases in income aren't followed by similar increases in spending.
• Diminishing marginal utility: it means that each additional unit of consumption brings about less benefit than the unit before it. Personally I call it the law of stomach.
• They are taking these outlier cases and passing them off as normal.
• To save even more, think like an owner.
• The end goal should be ownership, using your additional income to acquire more income-producing assets.

4. How to spend money guilt-free. The 2x Rule and maximizing fulfillment

• unscathed: indemne
• to splurge: faire une folie

• Creates anxiety around spending money.
• 20% of investors worth $5 million and $25 million were concerned about enough money to make it through requirement.
• The 2x Rule works like this: Anytime I want to splurge (faire une folie) on something, I have to take the same amount of money and invest it as well. So, if I wanted to buy a $400 pair of dress shoes, I would also have to buy $400 worth of stocks (or other income-producing assets). This makes me re-evaluate how much I really want something because if I am not willing to save 2x for it, then I don't buy it.
• Autonomy (being self-directed), mastery (improving your skills), and purpose (connecting to something bigger than yourself) are the key components to human motivation and satisfaction.
• Your money should be used as a tool to create the life that you want.
• The difficulty lies not in spending your money, but figuring out what you truly want out of life:
• What kind of things do you care about?
• What scenarios would you prefer to avoid?
• What values do you want to promote in the world?
• After all, it's not the purchase that makes you feel guilty, but how you justify that purchase in your head.
• This is to ask yourself whether a given purchase will contribute to your long-term fulfillment.

5. How much lifestyle creep is okay? And why it's more than you think.

• Lifestyle creep is when someone increases their spending after experiencing an increase in income or as a way of keeping up with their peers.
• Why a savings goal of 25x annual spending can lead to a comfortable retirement.
• This analysis assumes that you require 25 times your annual spending to retire, you get an annual raise of 3%, and your portfolio grows 4% a year.
• Why you should save 50% of your raises.
• The 2x rule states that before you buy something expensive, you should set aside a similar amount of money to buy income-producing assets.

6. Should you ever go into debt? Why credit card isn't always bad.

• dry spells: vagues de chaleur
• lineage: descendant
• bet hedging: stratégie pour limiter les pertes dans un monde incertain.
• thriftier: économe

• The borrower is slave to the lender.
• Some of the world's poorest people actually use debt as a way to save money. Many poor borrowers around the world used debt as a behavioral crutch to force themselves to save money.
• Some people will always have a strong aversion towards debt even if they aren't in financial trouble.

7. Should you rent or should you buy? How to think about your biggest financial purchase

• Home maintenance can take up more time than you might initially imagine.

8. How to save for a down payment (and other big purchases) Why your time horizon is so important

• down payment: acompte, versement initial

• Cash is the most sure-fire, lowest risk way to save for a big upcoming purchase.
• Given that a two-year savings time horizon slightly favors cash and a five-year savings time horizon clearly favors bonds.
• Why Time Horizon is the Most Important Factor

9. When can you retire? And why money isn't the most important factor

• Why spending declines in retirement.
• Crossover point because this is the point when your monthly income crosses over your monthly expenses to grant you financial freedom.
• Your biggest concern during retirement is unlikely to be money anyway.
• The bigger retirement concern:
• Physical well- being, mental well-being, and solid social support play bigger roles than financial status for most retirees.
• Zelinski's book suggests that it is not a financial crisis you need to worry about in retirement, but an existential one.
• How will you spend your time?
• What social groups will. you interact with?
• What will be your ultimate purpose?
• Though money can solve many of your problems, it' won't solve all of your problems. Money is merely a tool to help you get what you want out of life. Unfortunately, figuring out what you want out of life is the hard part.

II. INVESTING

10. Why should you invest? Three reasons why growing your money is more important than ever before

• Saving for Your Future Self
• Preserving Wealth Against Inflation
• Replacing Your Human Capital with Financial Capital

11. What Should You Invest In? There is no one true path to wealth

• Since the U.S. government can just print any dollars they owe at will, anyone who lends to them is virtually guaranteed to get their money back.
• Lindy Effect states that something's popularity in the future is proportional to how long it has been around in the past.
• The hard part about products as investments is that they require lots of work upfront with no guarantee of a payout. There is a long road to monetization.
• Creating a product takes lots of time and effort.
• Pros: full ownership. Personal satisfaction. Can create a valuable brand.
• Gold, cryptocurrency, commodities, art, and wine have no reliable stream associated with their ownership.
• The bulk of my investments (90%) are in income-producing assets, with the remaining 10% spread out in non-income-producing assets such as art and various cryptocurrencies.

12. Why you shouldn't buy individual stocks Why underperforming is the least of your worries

• lull: accalmie

• The mental turmoil.
• Because Darren only bet what he was willing to lose, and he made sure that any such loses wouldn't affect his financial future.
• By buying an index fund or ETF is usually a far better bet than trying to pick big winners among individual stocks.
• Underperformance isn't a matter of it, but when.
• Yes, you had skill in the past, but what about now?
• The simplicity of indexing allows me to focus my attention on the things in life that are far more important than my portfolio.

13. How soon should you invest? And why earlier is better than later

• And it was data that he collected.
• Deep insight can be gleaned from one useful data point.
• Every day you end up waiting to invest usually means higher prices you will have to pay in the future.
• Invest what you can now.
• "The best time to start was yesterday. The next best time is today"
• The best timing approach is to invest your money as soon as you can.
• The Average-In strategy generally underperforms Buy Now most of the time.
• A higher standard deviation usually corresponds with a riskier investment or investment strategy.
• The standard deviation of the Buy Now strategy is always higher than the Average-In strategy when investing in the S&P 500.
• This is what investors want: outperformance, with lower risk.
• When deciding between investing all your money now or over time, it is almost always better to invest it now.
• Generally, the longer you wait to deploy your capital, the worse off you will be.
• Investors won't be able to keep buying as the market falls anyway.
• You should never wait to buy the dip.

14. Why you shouldn't wait to buy the dip. Even God couldn't beat dollar-cost averaging.

• 1996-2019 and the 1928-1957 periods just happen to be two periods where there were prolonged, severe bear markets.
• Buy the Dip typically underperforms DCA.
• Saving cash to buy the dip is futile. You would be far better offf if you Just Keep Buying.
• It's' generally better to invest sooner rather than later. Taken together, the conclusion is undeniable: you should invest as soon and as often as you can.

15. Why investing depends on luck And Why you shouldn't care

• The importance of your future returns increases as you add more money.
• The end is everything.
• The investment returns during your first decade of retirement are so important.
• Most markets go up most of the time.

16. Why you shouldn't fear volatility The price of admission for successful investing

• bust: fiasco

• Sometimes the biggest risk you can take is taking no risk at all.
• If you want the upside - building wealth - you have to accept volatility and periodic declines that come with it.
• In 2008 the S&P index was down 48%.
• Markets won't give you a free ride without some bumps along the way. You have to experience some downside in order to earn your upside.
• We have the ability to diversify.
• Volatility is just a part of the game. It comes with the territory of being an investor.

17. How to buy during a crisis Why you should stay calm in a panic 

• Just keep buying the next time there's blood in the streets.

18. When should you sell? On rebalancing, concentrated positions, and the purpose of investing

• Taking less time to monitor your investments each year allows you to spend more time doing the things you enjoy.
• Remove the emotion from the selling process.
• Whatever you decide to do, don't sell all of it at once. Why? Because of the tax consequences and the possibility of regret if the price skyrockets.
• To live the life that you want to live.
• What's the point of investing if you never get to enjoy the results?
• A safety net for you and your loved ones.
• You could even buy your dream car if you want.
• Each additional unit of consumption provides less happiness than the unit before. The same is true for wealth.
• This is why going from $0 to $1 million in wealth provides a much bigger boost to someone's happiness than going from $1 million to $2 million.

20. Why you will never feel rich And why you probably are

• eggnog: lait de poule
• roaches: cafards
• to abjure: renier

• I know from experience that recognizing your wealth is always harder than it seems.
• This was just like my friend John who couldn't see his wealth because all he knew growing up was being relatively poorer than his high school friends. Unfortunately, this feeling doesn't seem to go away even as you move further the wealth spectrum.
• Most people at the upper end of the income spectrum think that they are less well off than they actually are.
• Households above the 50th percentile (médiane) in income tend to underestimate how well they are doing relative to others.
• Wealth perception as a network problem.
• Why most people feel less popular than their friends: "Have you ever had the impression that other people have many more friends than you? If you have, you are not alone.
• You are likely far richer than you think.
• Because being rich is a relative concept.
• This why no one feels rich. Because it's always easy to point at someone who is doing better.

21. The most important asset And why you'll never get any more of it

• cryptic: énigmatique
• treacherous: traître

• Time is worth far more than money. Because you can do some things with time that you could never do with money. In fact, with enough time you could even move mountains (ce que je me disais quand j'étais jeune)
• This is why time is, and always be, your most important asset.
• I incorrectly believe that money was a more important asset than time.
• Wealth isn't an absolute game, it's a relative game.
• Over time, however, excessive optimism diminishes...People are not becoming depressed. They are becoming, well, realistic.

Conclusion: The just keep buying rules How to win the traveler's game

• Saving is for the Poor, Investing is for the Rich
• Save what you can
• Focus on Income, not Spending
• Use the 2x Rule to eliminate the spending guilt
• Save at least 50% of your future raises and bonuses
• Debt isn't Good or Bad, It depends on how you use it.
• Only buy home when the time is right
• When saving for a big purchase, Use Cash
• Retirement is about more than money
• Invest to replace your waning human capital with financial capital
• Think like an Owner and Buy Income-Producing Assets
• Don't Buy Individual Stocks
• Buy Quickly, Sell Slowly
• Invest As Often As You Can
• Investing Isn't About The Cards You Are Dealt, but How You Play Your Hand
• Don't Fear Volatility When It Inevitably Comes
• Market Crashes Are (Usually) Buying opportunities
• Fund the Life You Need Before You Risk it for the Life You Want.
• You'll Never Feel Rich and That's Okay
• Time is Your Most Important Asset
• Every day we have to make financial decisions, without knowing what the future holds. We are constantly searching to find the best information that we can.

Marathon de Londres 2025 - Le 24 ème marathon

•  Quel beau temps nous avons eu pour ce 24 ème marathon, avec 21 degrés, un peu trop chaud pour courir. La prochaine fois, il faudra penser à la casquette. J'ai profité des jets d'eau qui arrosaient les coureurs et de ce fait je me suis retrouvé avec un mal de gorge le mardi suivant le marathon. La semaine suivante j'étais encore malade. Après le coup de blues subit après le marathon de Chicago, ça fait deux marathons de suite ou l'après course n'est pas sans conséquences.
• Compte tenu du faible entrainement dû au Covid, je suis parti sur une allure de 6 minutes au km et j'ai fait une "Murakani 28" soit aucun arrêt avant le 28 ème km. Encore une fois, lors du prochain marathon, il faudra que j'augmente les kms lors des entrainements.
• Il y a trop de coureurs qui marchent et c'est décourageant.
• Mais vraiment très content de finir ce marathon en 4:41.

Tower Bridge (après 2 heures de course)

Sur le Mall avec Buckingham en fond

Dans les 195 derniers mètres

La joie immense de finir un marathon

La médaille